The stock prices of dairy companies surged collectively! Yili rose 8.62%, Feihe soared 15.68%
Recently, the dairy industry has ushered in a rare wave of collective stock price rises. According to the latest data, Yili shares rose by 8.62% in a single day, and China Feihe soared by 15.68%. Other dairy companies such as Mengniu and Guangming also performed well. This phenomenon has aroused widespread attention from the market. This article will analyze it from three dimensions: data, reasons and industry impact.
1. A list of the stock price increase data of dairy companies (next 10 days)
| Company Name | Stock price increase | Latest closing price | Changes in market value (billion yuan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yili Shares | 8.62% | RMB 32.45 | +287.5 |
| China Feihe | 15.68% | HK$9.78 | +156.2 |
| Mengniu Dairy Industry | 6.33% | HK$28.12 | +142.8 |
| Bright Dairy | 4.91% | RMB 12.56 | +38.7 |
2. Three core reasons for stock price surge
1.Policies promote favorable policies: The latest "National Nutrition Plan" released by the National Health Commission clearly proposes to strengthen the guidance of dairy consumption, and it is expected that the per capita milk consumption will increase to 40 kilograms by 2025. The Ministry of Finance simultaneously announced tax exemption policies for infant formula production enterprises.
2.Raw material prices fall: Data from global dairy trading platforms show that the price of whole milk powder futures has fallen for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of 12%. New Zealand Fonterra Group predicts that raw milk supply will increase by 4.5% year-on-year in 2023, alleviating cost pressure.
3.Consumer market recovery: After the Spring Festival, supermarket channel data showed that sales of high-end white milk increased by 23% year-on-year, and children's milk powder increased by 18%. During the pre-sale of the e-commerce platform "38 Festivals", the pre-sales of dairy products surged by 65% year-on-year.
3. Changes in the industry's competitive landscape
| Market share indicators | Yili | Mengniu | Feihe | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market share of room temperature milk | 38.6% | 31.2% | - | 30.2% |
| Infant milk powder | 14.8% | 11.5% | 19.3% | 54.4% |
| Low temperature fresh milk | 25.3% | 22.7% | - | 52.0% |
4. Institutional Views and Investment Advice
CICC released a research report pointing out that the dairy industry is ushering in a double-click opportunity of "cost decline + demand rebound" and raising the industry rating to "over-equipment". Three main investment lines are recommended:
1. Leading enterprises with advantages in the entire industrial chain (Yili, Mengniu)
2. Leaders in subdivided fields (Feihe, Miaokelando)
3. Merger and acquisition opportunities for regional dairy companies (Xin Dairy, Yantang Dairy)
Morgan Stanley reminds investors to pay attention to three major risks: fluctuations in international milk powder prices, lower consumption recovery, and food safety incidents. It is recommended to adopt the "core + satellite" configuration strategy, with 60% of the positions configuring leading enterprises, and 40% paying attention to high-growth segmented tracks.
5. Future trend prospects
Industry experts predict that the dairy industry will show the following development trends in 2023:
• Product high-end product: The growth rate of high-end product lines such as organic milk and A2 protein milk will reach 30%+
• Channel diversification: the proportion of community group buying is expected to increase to 15%, and live e-commerce has become a new growth pole
• Technological innovation: membrane filtration technology, probiotic research and development, etc. will reshape the competitive barriers in the industry
It is worth noting that many dairy companies have released annual report forecasts recently. Yili expects net profit to increase by 12%-15% year-on-year in 2022, and Feihe predicts net profit to increase by 18%-22%. Performance certainty has become an important factor supporting stock prices. Investors are advised to continue to pay attention to the realization of financial data in the annual report disclosure season from March to April.
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